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3 Backlog Estimation Strategies You Should Know

David Theil
7 min read6 days ago

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There are lots of different approaches to estimate a backlog, but today we talk about my favorite three Rapid Estimation Techniques we often use to estimate the product backlog. Depending on the state of your backlog and the current situation you are in, they can make more or less sense. So let’s break it down.

Our favorite estimation techniques are:

  1. Planning Poker
  2. Estimation Game
  3. Magic Estimation

All three Estimation Techniques use a reference item and work with both value and effort estimations. That is why you need to first have a good reference item in your backlog.

How to find a good Reference Item:

To find a good reference item, you should look at your last sprints. Find an item that took your team around one to two workdays of effort to finish. “Finishing the item” means that it has successfully satisfied the Definition of Done. If you don’t have a Definition of Done, take some time with your team to discuss what it takes to finish a Ticket and to create real value. Discuss the different rules that need to be fulfilled and summarize these rules in a Definition of Done checklist/statement.

Once you find a good item you either already have a Story Point number assigned to it, or you can assign the item a number. Choose a smaller Fibonacci number like 2 or 3.

This is now your reference item. Use this Item to compare every other item against this one.

You then repeat the process with value points. Search for a ticket that delivers a small but still recognizable value for the user and assign the ticket a Value Point Fibonacci number like 2 or 3 Value Points.

Now let’s dive into the different estimation techniques:

1. Planning Poker:

Planning-Poker is a consensus-based estimation method that is mainly used in refinements when you estimate a single item at a time.

The Estimation is gamified by having each team member hold the Fibonacci sequence in the form of poker cards in their hand. The Cards represent the Fibonacci sequence from 0 to 100.

To make it easier, the sequence is often altered to this one: 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13,21,34,55,100, ∞; Some other planning poker card decks deviate from the Fibonacci sequence and have…

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David Theil
David Theil

Written by David Theil

Escape the feature factory and start agile product development. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidtheil1/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/DavidTheil

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